Saturday, December 02, 2006

The Cone of Uncertainty

I came across a great set of responses to an IEEE Software Article by Ted Little that seemed to question the cone of uncertainty. Among the respondents were Phillipe Kruchten and Steve McConnell. This prompted me on a search for resources about the cone of uncertainty. Here is what I came up with:

Does anyone know of others? I'm particularly interested in anything available online by Barry Boehm and also from Steve McConnell. [Updated 2/2/2007 - Steve McConnell emailed me himself with the URL to a recently available article on his website]

3 comments:

manohar said...

I first heard about this term when I heard Craig Larman speaking about it. You can find references to it in his book on Agile & Iterative Development - A Manager' guide

See www.craiglarman.com

Thanks

Raven said...

Thanks for the excellent list of resources on the Cone of Uncertainty. Unfortunately I have nothing to add but I did reference this useful list at my blog: http://ravenyoung.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!17376F4C11A91E0E!3384.entry

Love your stuff - keep it up!

Sarah Elkins said...

You might also be interested in David Gilbert's blog entry from June 2006, "Predicting the Path of the Storm" which also talks about hurricane predicting and project management. That's where I first came across "The Cone of Uncertainty".